Public defence, Electrical Power and Energy Engineering, MSc (Tech) Ilkka Jokinen

Title of the thesis: Energy system decarbonization through electrification: Coupling electrical power, district heating, vehicles, building stock and flexibility

Thesis defender: Ilkka Jokinen
Opponent: Prof. Anna Mutule, Riga Technical University, Latvia
Custos: Prof. Matti Lehtonen, Aalto University School of Electrical Engineering 

This thesis examined the decarbonization of the Finnish energy system through electrification, and its requirements and effects on the system. The main research included electricity generation, district heat generation, building stock and passenger vehicles. The electrification was enforced by utilizing electricity as the primary energy carrier in the energy system. Electricity was presumed to be generated mainly with wind power, solar photovoltaics, hydro power, and nuclear power. In addition, a large part of the research focused on modeling the demand response capabilities in these sectors which were applied to improve the utilization of emission-free power generation.

The results show that significant emission reductions are achievable with electrification and sector coupling. An emission reduction of 95% on emissions from electricity and district heat generation, building stock and passenger vehicles was achieved. This required building stock energy retrofits removing oil heating, flexible hydro power operation, and electric vehicles. Including flexible resources on both energy generation and demand, clearly improved the utilization of the emission-free generation.

In the scenarios achieving the 95% emission reduction target, the electrification, together with the energy efficiency measures for the building stock, increased the total electricity demand in Finland modestly, 10–17%, compared with 2010 to 2023. Required power generation capacity was significant, approximately 1.7 to 2.3 times the peak load. Likewise, the generation required was great, and the generation exceeding the load was from 10% to 28% of the total. In addition, requirement for dispatchable power capacity to prevent load curtailment increased compared with the current power system in Finland. Without increased nuclear power generation the increase was up to 3.7 GW or 105 %. Moreover, annual variation in the emissions and required dispatchable power capacity were significant. Thus, focus should be on trends rather than annual values.

Thesis available for public display 7 days prior to the defence at Aalto University's public display page.