Is quantum the next AI? Behind the quantum hype

In December 2025, Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, told the BBC that quantum computing is now at the same stage as artificial intelligence was five years ago. Groundbreaking breakthroughs could be expected as early as the turn of the decade. 

Pichai is not alone in making these kinds of predictions, says Christa Schauman, a doctoral researcher at Aalto University who studies how new technologies move from the margins into the mainstream. 

‘Expectations that quantum computing will deliver real commercial benefits and competitive advantages have clearly grown,’ she explains 

Still, there is no sense in dreaming about your own quantum computer 

Google’s roadmap is putting pressure on the industry  

A bit in a conventional computer can be either one or zero. In a quantum computer, calculations are performed by qubits, whose value can be both one and zero at the same time. In theory, this means qubits can be used to instantly solve the kinds of problems supercomputers use too much time and energy to tackle. 

‘For consumers, the impact could eventually show up in areas such as better medicines, new materials or more secure digital systems. But quantum computers are unlikely to become consumer technology in the same way as AI has,’ Schauman says.

For now, current quantum computers don’t yet deliver broad commercial benefits. 

Even a small disturbance can change the state of a qubit, creating noise – in other words, errors – in quantum computing. For a long time, the quantum race focused on increasing the number of qubits and seeking quantum advantage in more limited forms in noisy quantum computers. 

In 2024, Google made headlines with Willow, demonstrating important advances in quantum error correction. 

‘By then, there was already a growing belief that meaningful business benefits would require fault-tolerant quantum computers. What Willow changed was the sense of how close that future might be,’ Schauman explains. 

Google had already published a roadmap earlier in the decade predicting that fault-tolerant quantum computers would become a reality by the end of the decade. IBM and many others followed suit. 

‘When a large, credible player sets a timeline, it creates pressure across the entire field and establishes expectations. Few startups would dare say that it will take another ten years – it would be very difficult to secure funding that way,’ Christa Schauman says. 

Big breakthroughs may depend on hype  

In everyday talk, the word hype often has negative connotations. 

Yet many technological breakthroughs would never get off the ground without hype. This is particularly true of emerging deep-tech fields, where hype can help attract talent, capital, customers and partners, Schauman says. 

‘In organisational research, hype is understood as a collective vision around which excitement and expectations grow. Hype often begins with a technological breakthrough, which companies interpret and use to make promises about the next steps. Then the media, investors and political actors start reinforcing these expectations and fueling each other’s enthusiasm.’ 

Hype also comes with risks. In addition to empty promises, omitting information can cause expectations to spiral out of control. 

‘If the limitations and uncertainties of a new technology are not discussed, people can develop an overly optimistic view of the technology’s maturity and potential. When reality eventually becomes clear, the hype can collapse, and capital and talent can move elsewhere,’ Christa Schauman explains. 

Technological development often involves several peaks — and drops — of hype, driven by different factors. For example, the deteriorating funding environment in 2022–2023 caused the value of publicly listed quantum companies to plunge, even though technological development itself did not take a step backwards. In January 2025, major quantum companies saw their share prices plunge by around 40% after Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, said that useful quantum computers were still more than 15 years away. 

Schauman has closely followed the development of the quantum market for four years. Even amid the waves of hype, the direction is clear. 

‘Quantum has become more mainstream, the investor base has broadened, and capital has become more concentrated. At the same time, it has become a strategic technology for Europe — one where we simply have to succeed.’ 

Europe aims for sovereignty in critical technologies 

In June 2026, Henna Virkkunen, the EU Commissioner responsible for digital affairs, presented a package on technological sovereignty aimed at increasing the EU’s self-sufficiency in critical technologies. 

Yet Finland and the EU as a whole still have room for improvement when it comes to scaling up. 

Quantum muscles need to be trained early 

Around one-third of the world’s quantum companies are based in the EU, but on average they are younger and smaller than those in the United States and China. Europe also attracts just 5% of global private investment in quantum technology. This could drive promising companies elsewhere. 

Schauman points to fragmentation as another major challenge. Building quantum infrastructure and developing quantum computers require enormous amounts of capital. Companies in the field have raised hundreds of millions in funding, some even more than a billion, and yet there is still a long way to go before fault-tolerant quantum computers become a reality. If a large pie is divided into pieces that are too small, everyone loses. 

‘Not every member state needs its own chip manufacturing plant or quantum computer factory. Instead, we need to locate these strategically and create a genuine European single market,’ she sums up. 

Quantum computing could become mainstream in five years — or it could take ten. But that does not mean we can simply sit back and wait for the breakthrough, Schauman says. 

‘Companies and other organisations should start building their understanding of quantum technologies now. Not everyone needs to hire quantum specialists or invest in technology yet, but when commercial applications take off, both expertise and computing capacity could become scarce. There is still a great deal of uncertainty around future performance and commercial value, but this is a train that nobody wants to miss.’