Electricity supply in Finland could face a major test in the 2030s as EV charging drives demand

The rapid increase in electric vehicles and the consumption peaks caused by their charging could challenge electricity adequacy in Finland already in the early 2030s, according to a new study from Aalto University. The research suggests supply will be strained especially during early-winter cold spells, when demand is highest and wind power output is often low. 

'Our forecast indicates Finland’s electricity supply will face a significant deficit during low-wind winter periods as soon as in the beginning of the next decade. Generation capacity may not be sufficient to meet the surging number of EVs and the consumption spikes caused by their charging,' says Ilona Malmipuro, a doctoral researcher in energy technology at Aalto University.

Finland ranks among Europe's top in the electrification of transport, which reduces emissions and dependence on fossil oil. There are currently about 300 000 electric vehicles in Finland, and researchers estimate the number will at least double and possibly even triple within four years. 

In such large numbers, electric vehicles and specifically when they are charged will have a significant impact on electricity consumption, according to Malmipuro. 

'EV owners typically charge their cars in the afternoon and early evening. Finland’s electricity consumption is already at its highest in the mornings and afternoons. If vehicle charging was instead spread to all hours with the lowest electricity prices, consumption would be more evenly distributed,' she notes.

Supply depends increasingly on weather as demand grows

Finland and other Northern European countries are rapidly electrifying not only transport but also industrial production and heating systems. Total electricity demand in Finland is forecast to grow by 20–45 percent by 2030. 

Meanwhile, more than a quarter of Finnish electricity generation already relies on wind power, which makes the system as a whole more vulnerable to peaks in consumption and changes in weather. In Finland and Sweden, renewable energy sources are complemented by nuclear power. However, according to the researchers, Finland faces the greatest challenges in terms of electricity adequacy in the Nordic region. 

'Finland has high overall electricity demand relative to the capacity of stable, weather-independent generation. For example, the situation in Sweden and Norway is more stable because they have more hydropower resources, which are less dependent on weather and can be adjusted more effectively to meet demand,' Malmipuro says.

Spotlight on demand flexibility

In their forecasts, the researchers considered not only weather conditions and the expected growth in electricity demand but also different assumptions about demand flexibility – how much of the consumption can be shifted based on the price and availability of electricity.

If, during peak demand, there is an unplanned nuclear plant outage or, for example, a submarine cable failure in the Baltic Sea, demand flexibility will certainly be needed. 

'Our research shows that the current level of investment may not produce enough electricity in the future without demand flexibility. If most Finns got used to charging their EVs during windy weather, at night or on weekends, potential shortage situations would be reduced significantly,' Malmipuro says.

According to the researchers, the results also mean that municipalities should retain any remaining combined heat and power plants. Otherwise, there will be even less weather-independent generation. 

'During cold winters, they are a very important part of Finland’s security of supply,' concludes Sanna Syri, professor of energy technology and economics at Aalto University and the study’s co-author.

The study has just been published in the journal Energy and was carried out as part of the RealSolar project, funded by the Strategic Research Council, a part of the Research Council of Finland.

Read the study:

Capacity adequacy in the electrifying Nordic and Baltic region