Public defence in Real Estate Economics, M.Sc. (Tech.) Lassi Tähtinen

Title of the thesis: Navigating adverse futures for resilience: Expanding understanding of future crises and their impacts in the built environment

Thesis defender: Lassi Tähtinen
Opponent: Senior Researcher Arjan Wardekker, University of Bergen, Norway 
Custos: Assistant Professor Saija Toivonen, Aalto University School of Engineering, Department of Built Environment

How do future crises impact the built environment, and how can understanding them help build resilience?

The future is inherently uncertain, encompassing threats and possible crises that may influence all areas of society, from the economy and politics to work and well-being. The built environment plays a significant role across these sectors, and this role is further amplified by continuous urbanisation. This dissertation explores the wide range of possible future crises and their impacts on the built environment.

The aim of the study is to broaden and deepen current understanding of possible future crises and their impacts on the built environment. At the same time, it seeks to identify potential means for developing resilience against a wide variety of known and unknown future threats. The research diverges from traditional probability-based crisis frameworks by adopting a qualitative, futures studies–oriented approach that allows for a broader long-term consideration of possible crises.

The study identified a total of 153 potential future crises and found that crises may develop at different speeds across various sectors of society. They can also interconnect, causing both direct and indirect effects on the built environment. Despite the large number and diversity of crises, the findings show that their impacts can be grouped into key thematic areas, such as changes in physical structures, space requirements, regulations, values, resources, and space users' sense of safety.

The results indicate that to effectively respond to these multifaceted impacts, the resilience of the built environment must also be developed in a multidimensional way. This includes enhancing physical durability, institutional and administrative preparedness and adaptability, protecting critical infrastructures, and supporting the operational capacity of space users.

The study emphasises that building resilience in the built environment requires interdisciplinary collaboration and anticipatory long-term planning. It offers new perspectives for developing resilience in the built environment and provides insights for urban planning, real estate development, and the preparedness efforts of both public and private sector actors.

Keywords: futures studies, crisis management, resilience, built environment, real estate 

Thesis available for public display 10 days prior to the defence at Aaltodoc. 

Contact information: www.linkedin.com/in/lassi-tähtinen; lassi.tahtinen@aalto.fi