Public defence in Industrial Engineering and Management, M.Sc. (Tech) Oskar Niemenoja

Title of the thesis: Changes in private healthcare supply, demand, and service utilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic

Doctoral student: Oskar Niemenoja
Opponent: Professor Markku Mäkijärvi, HUS
Custos: Professor (emeritus) Paul Lillrank, Aalto University School of Science, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management

The COVID-19 pandemic had a broad impact on the use and demand for private healthcare services. This is evident from Oskar Niemenoja's upcoming dissertation, “Changes in private healthcare supply, demand, and service utilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic.” These effects may be as impactful as or larger than direct COVID-19 infections and will likely persist as the pandemic continues. "The use of private healthcare services decreased by about a quarter immediately following the onset of the pandemic, and for most diagnostic categories, the use of services did not recover or recovered only partially as the pandemic progressed," Niemenoja explains. "In total, there were 150,000 fewer diagnoses made over the two-and-a-half-year study period than we had predicted. The change was noticeable across all diagnostic categories and in nearly all service channels." If unaccounted for, these may present pressure on the healthcare system for the future.

The study had access to a previously unpublished, comprehensive dataset of private healthcare service data, which researchers used to build a predictive model of expected healthcare service use in the absence of COVID-19. This was compared to the actual service usage data. The results were studied across different diagnostic categories and service channels, such as physical consultations, laboratory and imaging services, and remote healthcare services. The study also considered appointment and cancellation data, studying customer behaviour patterns.

The study showcased that the decline in service use was demand-driven, to which supply quickly adapted. At the same time as the number of traditional in-person healthcare visits decreased, digital service usage increased significantly. "One of the most interesting findings was that digital services appeared to be remarkably resilient to demand fluctuations and can provide rapidly scalable healthcare capacity in crisis situations," Niemenoja notes. "Our study also emphasizes the importance of high-quality and up-to-date information for healthcare decision-makers and managers both during and between pandemics."

Key words: COVID-19, Cov-SARS-2, Health service utilisation, Infection epidemiology, Health policy, Digital health

Thesis available for public display 10 days prior to the defence at: https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/doc_public/eonly/riiputus/ 

Contact information:

Doctoral theses of the School of Science: https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/52