Defense of Thesis in Organization and Management, Lauri Horelli, M.Sc.

The Doctoral Thesis of Lauri Horelli, M. Sc., "Distant futures in the making: expectation work in quantum computing ventures"

Thesis defender: Lauri Horelli
Opponent: Associate professor Miriam Feuls, Department of Organization, Copenhagen Business School 
Custos: Professor of Management Nina Granqvist, Head of the Department of Management Studies, Aalto University School of Business

The Quantum Promise: Lessons from Emerging Technology Ventures on Navigating Uncertain Futures

How do scientific breakthroughs move from laboratories to practical use? This dissertation examines how emerging-technology ventures navigate expectations about uncertain technological futures. It focuses on quantum computing, a field that promises major advances yet depends on scientific and technical breakthroughs whose timing and feasibility are difficult to predict.

The purpose of this study is to grasp how ventures set, sustain, and adjust expectations: the contexts in which expectation-setting takes place, how this is accomplished in practice, and what outcomes this generates. Expectations matter because they attract investors, partners, employees, policymakers, and public attention. At the same time, strong expectations generate pressure, hype, and commitments that may be difficult to satisfy. This challenge is present for all companies, especially early-stage ventures, but becomes particularly salient in science-based contexts, where development is long-term, uncertain, and dependent on advances that remain inherently unpredictable.

The dissertation is based on a longitudinal qualitative study conducted between 2019 and 2026. Its evidential material includes more than 200 interviews with founders, scientists, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders in the quantum computing field, as well as extensive archival material. Based on these data, the dissertation develops the concept of ‘expectation work’, that is, the deliberate and ongoing efforts through which ventures generate, sustain, temper, and recalibrate expectations over time.

Findings reveal that expectation work is not only about promoting exciting visions of the future, but also a continuous balancing act: ventures need to render uncertain futures compelling enough to mobilize action, while also keeping these credible, flexible, and open to adjustment. The dissertation shows that ventures do this in several ways. They leverage visual roadmaps to signal progress without becoming locked into fixed promises, adapt widely shared narratives about quantum computing to fit their own purposes, and tailor their messages to audiences whose support or acceptance is necessary.

This research contributes new knowledge to entrepreneurship, innovation, and emerging technology studies by demonstrating how expectations are actively shaped over time. Its results are relevant to actors involved in advancing science-based innovations, including technology ventures, investors, policymakers, research organizations, and other field participants. For those developing and promoting new technologies, the study offers practical insight into how uncertain futures can be presented responsibly, and how credibility can be maintained throughout extended development processes. For those evaluating, funding, regulating, or otherwise supporting such technologies, it offers a new lens for understanding the promises and projections through which emerging technologies are advanced.

Key words: Expectation work, entrepreneurship, nascent fields, quantum computing, qualitative methods

Thesis available for public display 7 days prior to the defence at Aalto University's public display page. 

Contact information: 

Lauri Horelli, lauri.horelli@aalto.fi

Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lauri-horelli/