Public defence in Management Science, Teemu Seeve, M.Sc. (Tech.)
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The doctoral thesis of Teemu Seeve, M.Sc. (Tech.) ”Analytical methods for scenario-based uncertainty models using expert judgment” will be publicly examined at the Aalto University School of Business on Friday, November 13, 2026 (Undergraduate Centre, Room H304).
https://aalto.zoom.us/j/63163289157
Opponent: Professor Nikolaos Argyris, Loughborough Business School
Custos (Chairperson): Professor Eeva Vilkkumaa, Aalto University School of Business
This Dissertation develops analytic methods to support scenario-based uncertainty modeling. The methodology of this Dissertation seeks to enable intuitive expert judgment frameworks for uncertainty modeling by leveraging methods of mathematical optimization.
The contribution of this Dissertation is two-fold. On the one hand, the developed methods enable involving a variety of participants – decision-makers, stakeholders, and subject matter experts -- in various steps of the scenario-based uncertainty modeling process.
On the other hand, the developed methods enable harnessing a wide variety of different perspectives and viewpoints represented by the participants in the scenario process. This is made possible by solving with mathematical modeling those tasks that are rendered incomprehensible to human intuition by a high number of key uncertainties.
The methods developed in this Dissertation support scenario-based uncertainty modeling in three specific areas: (i) the identification of internally consistent scenarios from exponentially many candidates, (ii) the structuring of key uncertainties' developments into influence networks on which to base scenario narratives, and (iii) the elicitation and generation of probability distributions for interdependent qualitative key uncertainties.
Due to their focus on practical applicability, the methods can be used to support strategy work of organizations. Furthermore, due to the solid theoretical foundation of the methods, they can be applied and further developed in various research domains, where modeling of key uncertainties and analysis of qualitative variables are required.
Key words: Scenarios, Optimization, Decision Support Systems
Contact information: teemu.seeve@aalto.fi
Thesis available at: https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/sec/eonly/riiputus/view/?id=714
Public defences: https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/50