Defence of doctoral thesis in the field of applied physics, M.Sc. Herman Böök

Title of the doctoral thesis is "Photovoltaic Output Modeling: Monitoring, Forecasting, and Applications"
The main production factors of photovoltaics, separated between environmental and system factors

Wide-spread adoption of photovoltaics (PV) impose challenges for power systems due to the intermittent nature of solar radiation. A way to mitigate this issue is to model the PV output. PV output modeling has received a lot of attention in recent years, nonetheless, no comprehensive solutions have yet been established for handling this entity, as a whole. In this doctoral thesis, modeling methods for monitoring and forecasting the output of specific PV systems were developed and validated. Their utilization in real-world applications was also demonstrated, while assessing the general viability of PV technology in a Nordic context.

The PV output model was shown to perform well in snow-free conditions, demonstrating its value in estimating distinct system losses and the capability for PV system monitoring. As a part of this process, the proposed quality control method for calculated direct normal solar irradiance (DNI) was shown to be a feasible approach for processing calculated DNI values.

In order to attain an accurate and reliable depiction of a set of individual PV systems, the specific characteristics of the investigated systems need to be taken into account. For individual sites, where no separate external measurements are available, the presented novel approach for adjusting the baseline model for forecasting the output was shown to capture site-specific losses, proving it as a feasible approach for providing adjusted site-specific PV output forecasts.

The modeling tools were demonstrated in three different applications, covering domestic hot water heating cost optimization with a PV output forecast based control method, a residential PV profitability study in Finland coupled with energy storage and optimization, and a virtual power plant concept required to regulate and aggregate active consumer behavior in the future power markets. In each case, a clear added value from PV output modeling could be demonstrated, e.g., through cost reductions and imbalance mitigation potential.

The contribution of this thesis offers general information to illustrate the applicability and price-competitiveness of PV in Nordic conditions. The demonstrated modeling approaches can be considered as effective tools for mitigating some of the key challenges caused by the variable PV output, while providing tangible added value for a range of different applications.

Opponent is Doctor Tomas Landelius, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Sweden

Custos is Professor Peter Lund, Aalto University School of Science, Department of Applied Physics

Contact details of the doctoral candidate: [email protected], 0408383411

The public defence will be organised via Zoom. Link to the event

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The dissertation is publicly displayed 10 days before the defence in the publication archive Aaltodoc of Aalto University

Electronic thesis

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