Mathematics helps peace negotiators

18.5.2011

Achieving a lasting peace requires hard work. Writing a peace agreement that contains several pages and multiple clauses requires numerous negotiations and discussions. The process can be facilitated by using systems analysis and mathematical models to understand issues.

‒ Decision analysis and optimising can be applied to support peace negotiations, says researcher and Doctor of Science in Technology Ville Brummer who completed his doctoral dissertation in the field of systems analysis in 2010.

From studies in technology to peace negotiations

When still an engineering physics student, applied mathematics attracted Ville Brummer to the systems analysis laboratory at the Helsinki University of Technology .

During the final phase of his doctoral thesis, Brummer performed his non-military service which involved him in a CMI project. The aim of the project was to examine the future of European safety and to think about what kinds of research projects the EU should fund in the future in order to be able to prepare for future challenges in the best possible way.

CMI, Crisis Management Initiative, is a Finnish non-profit organisation which aims at solving conflicts. It was established by President Martti Ahtisaari in 2000. CMI strives to promote peaceful solutions and to carry them out around the world. Today, Brummer works at CMI as the head of its R&D unit and is also a member of the organisation’s executive group.

At CMI, Brummer’s work includes supporting the planning and implementing of different foresight and scenario approaches and dialogue methodologies – in other words, the same methods that he developed in his doctoral dissertation.

‒ There are slightly over 40 employees at CMI. Five to six people work in administration and the rest in various programmes. The geographical units, Middle East, Africa and Black Sea and Central Asia are responsible for implementing projects.

The R&D unit led by Brummer is a support unit for these units.

Insight, mathematics and looking for a shared view

‒ In mathematical terms, our job is about mapping interests, analysing alternative decisions and communicating about these alternatives to different parties. In fact, our work is very practical. CMI has both international and local networks.

‒ We look for good decisions in cooperation with the parties involved in the conflict by using mathematical methods developed to support decision-making. Simultaneously we mediate discussions and dialogue and support the parties in implementing peace.

‒ We do not participate in the negotiations, but as a third party we provide the participants with information to support the negotiations and facilitate the discussions.

‒ In order to be able to support peace negotiations, we need to know what kinds of opinions, knowledge, insight and silent knowledge the people represented by the negotiators have.

‒ If, and this is often the case, the peace process is preceded by a long civil war, building the various state institutions has to start from scratch. For instance a land reform brings up the question of how ownership should be defined, Brummer explains.

‒ Who does a piece of land belong to if different governments have given it to different families? Or which one of the commanders who have ruled during the civil war will be given the task of maintaining safety? Who is allowed to control and who needs to be controlled?

‒ When there are several criteria affecting a choice, we can help the parties to define their own opinions from different points of view and to find common solutions later on.

‒ When negotiating peace, one alternative is often not unambiguously the best, so it is important to understand that different parties have different preferences in relation to different criteria.

‒ By using estimates, the methods developed by my research unit aim at finding out how the people in the area feel about issues. In other words, the objective is to put the issues being discussed into some kind of perspective and to understand what is ultimately important and what is realistic.

There is no philosopher’s stone, just hard work

Brummer does not believe that mathematics can offer a miraculous solution to problems. The wise thoughts and solutions must come from the parties participating in the negotiations.

‒ Mathematics is an instrument. The models that have been created will not solve anything on their own, but they can help to leave out the insignificant issues and to focus the discussions on issues where the parties seem to have common interests.

‒ In peace negotiations, the aim of CMI is to find a solution that will last. That is where we want to make a difference and that is also why this is a very motivating job, Brummer says.

Text and photos: Eeva Pitkälä